It’s become the ultimate conversational cliché, whenever we manage to have conversations, to utter some variant of ‘everything has changed’ or ‘things will never be the same’ or ‘did we ever think’? etc. We comment on unwanted change the way we used to talk about the weather, but I wonder if any of us really know what we mean by ‘things will never be the same’?
Nearly a year on, it’s possible to turn a more critical eye on Government responses to the Covid pandemic. For the first few months, after all, everyone except already rabid partisans probably felt most Governments deserved a free pass. Nobody had ever dealt with anything like this before; there were always going to be errors.
Nearly a year on however, it already seems likely that, if the world ever finds itself in a place to hold inquests, then those inquests are going to be long, painful and pretty damning. It will also be very interesting, indeed crucial for any notion of social stability, to see if we ever get clear answers to particular questions.
The once widely accepted origin story – namely that someone ate half-cooked bat in a market in Wuhan and so kicked off the pandemic – has recently been challenged. WHO have apparently finally been allowed access to investigate in Wuhan by the Chinese Government. One wonders what they’ll manage to find after a whole year. Why did it take so long to let them in?
Back in our neck of the woods meanwhile, it’s now entirely legitimate to call out certain aspects of the restrictions imposed by Government as inconsistent, not to say nuts.
The emphasis on keeping schools open at virtually all costs has failed, forcing Governments into embarrassing climbdowns. The key problem has been one of consistency. Why impose draconian restrictions on certain sectors of society while trying to keep others more or less completely open?
If you’re going to preserve the social solidarity Governments are so fond of talking about these days (and yes, there is a certain shameful joy to be had from listening to the multinational offspring of Margaret Thatcher pleading for ‘social cohesion’), then restrictions need to be seen to be both consistent and fair.
This hasn’t been the case with schools. Ok, the inability to physically attend school is arguably bad for children (and you’ll never get to hear about them, but there are differing views here), but is it much worse than being banged up by yourself in a house and seeing no one for weeks at a time?
Vastly more damaging to solidarity however, has been the schizoid approach to travel between borders, and this is something most Governments are going to be faced with questions about for a long, long time.
In many countries now, people are forbidden to travel more than 5km from their homes. In some cases, they’re barely allowed out at all, yet travel between borders has been continuing almost as before. Only now, with numbers spiking all over the place, is there talk of restricting it.
Largely for ideological reasons, countries in Europe have insisted on keeping their borders open, with consequently devastating impacts on their populations. Only last week, Ireland’s Deputy Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar, was quoted as claiming that 33,000 people a week were coming into the country ‘for essential reasons,’ surely one of the most idiotic remarks by any politician in the history of anywhere. It’s a crying shame that, Ireland’s ageing media being what it is, Leo doesn’t get pulled up a great deal more for this kind of thing.
Only now are European Governments being forced to confront the inevitable, and they don’t like it. It goes massively against the official grain. It’s not the type of thing middle class liberal, right on columnists are likely to praise you for doing.
Yet the three countries which have largely gained control over the pandemic – China, New Zealand and Australia – did so by drastically restricting access to their borders almost from the outset. Arrivals to each of these countries underwent forced quarantine. They didn’t take anyone’s word for anything, unlike Governments in Europe and the US, who for a long time simply accepted the word of people who promised not to go out for two weeks.
The result: infection and death rates in Europe and the US have spiralled, and they show no sign of stopping.
The last time a pandemic spread this quickly was in 1918, when four years of war in Europe had led to unprecedented movements of people and breakdown in infrastructure.
The exponential spread of Covid 19, even allowing for vastly improved health systems in parts of the world at least, has to be related to the fact that people are now routinely roaming across the globe in numbers unprecedented since the dawn of homo sapiens.
To put it perhaps too simply: at any given time, there are all kinds of nasty things in the natural environment. The more you allow potentially infected hosts to move around, the more you boost a pathogen’s chances of killing large amounts of people.
We absolutely don’t want to talk about this. Governments today go queasy even thinking about it. But one sign of the times is the fact that ultra-pliant Government media, such as RTE in Ireland, is being mobilized to soften people up for what will be one of the starkest U turns in history.
And consider: we’re talking about travel restrictions now simply because things are really bad, cataclysmically and horrifically bad, but what about later?
If the roll out of vaccines finally manages to end Covid 19 as a global health emergency, what then? Do we just go back to the way things were before? Do we go back to nice, cheap, shiny travel all over the planet? It’s so good to get money moving around the place, you know.
Maybe we’ll even launch a couple of new resource wars, create some new refugee crises, because they’re kind of good for the economy too you know, except, obviously, in the countries where the wars actually happen.
After all, there can’t be any more nasty new bugs out there, can there?